Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics

Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics PDF
Author: Joong Shik Kang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
View: 5294

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Book Description:
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.


Progress Towards External Adjustment In The Euro Area Periphery And The Baltics

Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics PDF
Author: Joong Shik Kang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
View: 2884

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Book Description:
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.


Adjustment In Euro Area Deficit Countries Progress Challenges And Policies

Adjustment in Euro Area Deficit Countries  Progress  Challenges  and Policies PDF
Author: Mr. Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
View: 2131

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Book Description:
Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.


Supranational Governance At Stake

Supranational Governance at Stake PDF
Author: Mario Telò
Publisher: Routledge
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 284
View: 4409

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Book Description:
This book examines the varied competences of the European Union (EU) in relation to its capacity to externalize its policy preferences. Specifically, it explores the continued resilience within the EU’s policy toolbox of supranational modes of governance beyond the State. The book first situates European experiences of supranationality in relations to the wide variety of regional and global modes of governance it comes into contact with when seeking to deal with an increasingly complex and fragmented international environment. Over the course of its subsequent sections, the book analyses the resilience, flexibility and adaptability of the EU’s supranational practices across a significant cross-section of policy fields, for example, Area Freedom of Justice, Justice and Security; Socio-economic Governance; or Trade Policies. Overall, these chapters unpack the impact of the EU’s internal institutional complexity on the EU's external capacity to export its preferences in an increasingly fragmented international environment. This in turn, sees the book also question whether the EU has the institutional tools to guarantee and implement consistency between its internal and external policies. This book will be of key interest to scholars and students of EU politics/studies and more broadly to International relations, International/EU Law, comparative regionalism, international political economy, security studies, international law.


Ireland Ex Post Evaluation Of Exceptional Access Under The 2010 Extended Arrangement

Ireland  Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Extended Arrangement PDF
Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
View: 4424

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Book Description:
This paper presents an Ex Post Evaluation of the 2010 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with Ireland. The Fund approved in December 2010 an exceptional access EFF arrangement for SDR 19.466 billion (2,321.8 percent of quota) in support of Ireland’s home-grown program and as part of a broader financing package of Ireland and its European partners. The program focused on addressing the Irish banking crisis to break the adverse feedback loop between banks, the sovereign, and the real sector. It aimed to restore the banking system to health, including by establishing a smaller banking sector with high capital buffers and more stable funding sources; and to secure fiscal sustainability while limiting the near-term demand drag from fiscal consolidation. Large external financing was a key element of the crisis response. Program implementation was very strong. The program succeeded in stabilizing the banking sector and reducing its size, and fiscal developments were also broadly as anticipated. Domestic demand was, however, weaker than programmed and unemployment remained high, amid a very challenging external environment. Program success, including regaining market access at low interest rates, benefitted also from actions at the wider euro area level. The Ex Post Evaluation draws several lessons from Ireland’s experience under the EFF: ? The main lessons emerge from what worked well: Strong country ownership, setting (and meeting) realistic and tailored targets were key for success, combined with effective communication and pro-active engagement. Addressing a banking crisis requires strong and credible actions upfront. ? Some areas offer lessons for future program design: While the main pillars of the financial sector program were sound, more proactive and stronger supervisory interventions and other supportive steps could have strengthened banks’ balance sheets and bank profitability and helped resolve problem loans; bank recapitalization should be limited to those with viable medium-term business strategies; unsecured and non-guaranteed creditors of failed banks should be bailed in, provided a strategy to ring fence potential systemic risks can be put in place; macro-financial linkages require careful attention and timely steps to limit sovereignbanking sector feedback loops; fiscal policy has to be mindful of debt sustainability but also of domestic demand conditions, and it needs a clear anchor. ? There are also lessons related to Fund policies: Ireland’s EFF underscores the importance of addressing shortcomings of the systemic exemption clause in Criterion 2 of the exceptional access criteria; and it suggests the need to explore ways to secure stronger upfront commitments from monetary union authorities, when those are critical for program success.


World Economic Outlook October 2017

World Economic Outlook  October 2017 PDF
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 284
View: 7574

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Book Description:
The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening. Global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies. Commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short-term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside. The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks. A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.